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Trade & Turkey Drive Markets –
August 20, 2018

Challenges in emerging markets affected both U.S. and global stock performance last week, with the S&P 500 experiencing several down days.1https://lplresearch.com/2018/08/16/market-update-thursday-august-16-2018/ By market close on Friday, however, two of the three major domestics posted gains for the week. The S&P 500 added 0.59%, the Dow increased 1.41%, and the NASDAQ lost 0.29%.2http://performance.morningstar.com/Performance/index-c/performance-return.action?t=SPX&region=usa&culture=en-UShttp://performance.morningstar.com/Performance/index-c/performance-return.action?t=!DJI&region=usa&culture=en-UShttp://performance.morningstar.com/Performance/index-c/performance-return.action?t=@CCO Meanwhile, the MSCI EAFE international stocks slipped 1.18%.3 https://www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search

As several reports deepened our understanding of the economy’s underlying health, investors balanced the news with updates on Turkey and trade disputes.4https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/17/us-markets-china-us-trade-developments-earnings-data-on-the-agenda.html Here are some key highlights of the various developments:

Economy: Mixed Picture

The latest unemployment data beat expectations, indicating continuing strength as the labor market is near full employment. However, new home construction missed its 7.4% projected growth, increasing only 0.9% in July—following June’s 12.3% decline.5https://lplresearch.com/2018/08/16/market-update-thursday-august-16-2018/ Nevertheless, more positive news emerged: Thanks to tax cuts, a solid labor market, and economic growth, retail sales increased 6.4% in July year-over-year. Retail sales have now risen for the past 6 months.6https://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2018/8/15/retail-sales-rose-0.5percent-in-july

Turkey: Sanctions and a Tumbling Lira

On Monday, August 13, the Turkish lira hit its lowest point ever against the U.S. dollar.7https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/13/turkish-lira-turkey-currency-hits-new-record-low.html The U.S. has threatened more sanctions on Turkey if the country does not release U.S. Pastor Andrew Brunson. In addition, Turkey’s inflation is swelling, and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may be suppressing the central bank’s ability to increase interest rates.  The lira may continue to decline in value until interest rates rise.8https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/17/us-markets-china-us-trade-developments-earnings-data-on-the-agenda.html Some analysts are optimistic that these developments won’t create contagion in other markets. Not only is Turkey’s economy relatively small and investors have priced in some risk, opportunities still exist to help calm Turkey’s challenges.9https://lplresearch.com/2018/08/16/market-update-thursday-august-16-2018/

Trade Update: Positive Movement

Later in the week, we received positive updates on trade challenges with China and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Mexican economy minister, Ildefonso Guajardo, announced that he hoped to finalize some NAFTA negotiations by this week.10https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/wall-street-rises-on-upbeat-trade-news-idUSKBN1L215L In addition, officials from the U.S. and China will be meeting in Washington, D.C. this week to discuss the ongoing trade disputes. These talks come before the anticipated meeting in November between President Trump and Chinese Leader Xi. A trade war with China has been one of the market’s largest concerns, so if the tension lessens, that is likely good news for equities.11https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/17/us-markets-china-us-trade-developments-earnings-data-on-the-agenda.html

Looking Ahead

This week, we’ll receive more information about the housing market that reveals how this key industry is currently performing. We will also continue to track developments in trade and Turkey. As always, if you have any questions about what you read here¾or what you’re hearing elsewhere¾we’re available to talk.

Robert Roman
CEO, Managing Director
MGO | Wealth Advisors

ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

Wednesday: Existing Home Sales

Thursday: New Home Sales, Jobless Claims

Friday: Durable Goods Orders


Notes: All index returns exclude reinvested dividends, and the 5-year and 10-year returns are annualized. Sources: Yahoo! Finance, S&P Dow Jones Indices and Treasury.gov. International performance is represented by the MSCI EAFE Index. Corporate bond performance is represented by the SPUSCIG. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
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“Fortune sides with him who dares.”

 — Virgil

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Zucchini Soup

Serves 4

Ingredients:

  • 1 tablespoon olive oil
  • 1 medium yellow onion, chopped
  • 4 cloves garlic, minced
  • 1 teaspoon black pepper
  • 1 teaspoon fresh ginger
  • 3 large zucchinis, chopped
  • 4 cups low-sodium chicken broth

Optional: olive oil for garnish or cilantro for garnish

Directions:

  1. Over medium heat, sauté olive oil, onion, and garlic, about two minutes.
  2. Add pepper and ginger. Continue to stir.
  3. Mix in zucchini and chicken broth.
  4. After bringing the soup to a boil, lower heat to a simmer to let zucchini soften, about 45 minutes.
  5. Puree the zucchini soup in an immersion blender until the mix is creamy and smooth.
  6. Add pepper, olive oil, or cilantro to season.

Recipe adapted from Regan Baroni12https://reganbaroni.com/blog/recipes/zucchini-soup-recipe/

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IRS Provides Helpful Tools, Resources for Retirees*

The IRS provides resources to people who have recently retired or who are planning to retire. The resources can help taxpayers with challenges and tips to prepare for retirement.

Here are some links with information for retirees.

Other details may apply, and you can find more information on the IRS website.

*This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax advisor.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov13https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/retirees-can-visit-irsgov-for-helpful-tools-and-resources

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Uphill Putts Shouldn’t Be Tricky

That long, uphill putt. So unpredictable. So frustrating. Even after carefully examining the terrain, considering the club impact, and analyzing the ball’s trajectory, you know the ball may land just about anywhere. Except for the hole. It’s one of the most challenging shots on the course.

What’s the solution? You imagine the shot just needs a little more punch and power, right?

Not so fast. Your primary aim for these types of shots is simply to get the ball over the hill. And the best way to do is that is with more ball speed. Greater ball speed isn’t achieved by tighter putter grips or knocking the ball harder, which reduces ball control.

To gain better ball speed—without sacrificing control—get into a more stable position as you prepare to address the ball, which may include a wider stance. During the shot, the key is to make longer, not harder, strokes. The swing should be smooth and easy.

To put more focus into your putt, imagine you’re hitting a draw. This type of stroke will reduce backspin.

Tip adapted from GolfDigest14https://www.golfdigest.com/story/dont-let-uphill-putts-fool-you

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What You Need to Know About Strokes

Strokes are the leading cause of death in the United States. They are caused when blood vessels in the brain develop blockages or burst.

Without immediate treatment, brain cells quickly begin to die, which can lead to disability or death.

Symptoms of stroke include:

  • Sudden numbness or weakness of the body (especially on one side).
  • Sudden changes in vision or difficulty swallowing.
  • Sudden, severe headache.
  • Sudden dizziness or difficulty walking.
  • Sudden confusion.
  • Sudden difficulty speaking or understanding.

Call 911 immediately if you or someone you know experiences these symptoms.

You may conduct a quick stroke test. Here are stroke clues:

  • Does one side of the face droop?
  • Raise the arms. Does one arm drift down?
  • Repeat a simple sentence. Do the words slur?

Call 911 immediately if you detect these stroke symptoms.

Tips adapted from WebMD15https://www.webmd.com/stroke/ss/slideshow-stroke-overview

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Fleeing Fleas and Ticked Off Ticks

Fleas, ticks, and warm summer afternoons. They seem sadly inseparable. How can you remain environmentally friendly and enjoy the good old summertime—away from the miniature pests? Here are some tips:

Use the more environmentally friendly sprays. The carbaryl in most flea and tick sprays attacks insects’ nervous systems. It may also harm fetuses in humans and animals. Less-toxic alternatives include geranium, citronella, and lavender. Take a look at these bug spray recipes: https://wellnessmama.com/2565/homemade-bug-spray/.

Get prepared before heading outdoors. Wear long sleeves, pants, and socks when hiking. Do a quick tick check before going for longer trips.

Bathe after spending time outdoors to wash off unembedded ticks. Use unscented soaps, shampoos, and deodorants.

Add garlic and brewer’s yeast to pets’ food. Garlic and brewer’s yeast make pets taste bad to insects.

Do the basics by keeping your pets clean. Fine-toothed flea combs and lint-rollers help you to remove fleas from pets.

Dust and vacuum regularly. Fleas don’t like clean houses.

Tip adapted from EarthShare16http://www.earthshare.org/2008/09/fleas.html

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Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.

Diversification does not guarantee profit nor is it guaranteed to protect assets.

International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. The DJIA was invented by Charles Dow back in 1896.

The Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of stocks of technology companies and growth companies.

The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) that serves as a benchmark of the performance in major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indices from Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia.

The S&P U.S. Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index contains U.S.- and foreign-issued investment-grade corporate bonds denominated in U.S. dollars.

The SPUSCIG launched on April 09, 2013. All information for an index prior to its Launch Date is back-tested, based on the methodology that was in effect on the Launch Date. Back-tested performance, which is hypothetical and not actual performance, is subject to inherent limitations because it reflects application of an Index methodology and selection of index constituents in hindsight. No theoretical approach can take into account all of the factors in the markets in general and the impact of decisions that might have been made during the actual operation of an index. Actual returns may differ from, and be lower than, back-tested returns.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are the leading measures of U.S. residential real estate prices, tracking changes in the value of residential real estate. The index is made up of measures of real estate prices in 20 cities and weighted to produce the index.

The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

You cannot invest directly in an index.

Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.

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