Stocks Advance, Economy Softens – June 5, 2017
Last week, the S&P 500, Dow, and NASDAQ closed at all-time record highs.1http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/02/three-big-events-could-bring-some-volatility-back-into-markets.html The S&P 500 rose 0.96%, the Dow gained 0.6%, and the NASDAQ grew by 1.54%.2http://performance.morningstar.com/Performance/index-c/performance-return.action?t=SPX®ion=usa&culture=en-UShttp://performance.morningstar.com/Performance/index-c/performance-return.action?t=%21DJI®ion=usa&culture=en-UShttp://performance.morningstar.com/Performance/index-c/performance-return.action?t=@CCO Meanwhile, the MSCI EAFE gained 1.64% for the week.3https://www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search
Despite strong equity markets, bond yields dropped to their lowest point in the year.4http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/02/three-big-events-could-bring-some-volatility-back-into-markets.html The drop in yield caused by rising bond prices, combined with soft employment numbers and low wage growth, could suggest a slowing economy or a tightening labor market.5http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/02/weak-may-jobs-growth-raises-doubts-about-how-much-fed-can-raise-interest-rates-this-year.html?__source=newsletter%7Ceveningbrief
While the U.S. equity markets advanced to new highs and bond prices rose, other markets were mixed for the week. Pending home sales dropped 1.3% in April, a second straight month of decline.6http://wsj-us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=478084&cust=wsj-us&year=2017&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top Oil fell to $47.66 a barrel, the dollar dropped to a seven-month low against the euro, and gold gained 0.8% closing at $1,280.20.7https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-01/stocks-climb-with-dollar-on-economy-optimism-markets-wraphttp://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/01/dollar-hits-1-week-high-vs-yen-on-firm-us-data-non-farm-payrolls-next.htmlhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-01/stocks-climb-with-dollar-on-economy-optimism-markets-wrap
Additionally, soft employment numbers and flat wages could lead to a disappointing Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP). With an eye on dropping inflation, the Fed will have to decide whether to still raise interest rates.8http://wsj-us.econoday.com/byshoweventarticle.asp?fid=481907&cust=wsj-us&year=2017&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp – top
Mixed Job Numbers and Slow Wage Growth
May’s job growth reported an anemic 138,000, well below the expected 185,000. At the same time, average hourly wages increased on a year-over-year basis by only 2.5%. Moreover, the revisions to March and April’s payroll numbers fell by 66,000 jobs.9http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/02/weak-may-jobs-growth-raises-doubts-about-how-much-fed-can-raise-interest-rates-this-year.html?__source=newsletter%7Ceveningbrief The economy is currently averaging 162,000 new jobs per month for the year—again, well below 2016’s 187,000 average.10https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-02/u-s-jobs-weakness-may-be-temporary-but-loss-of-momentum-isn-t?cmpid=BBD060217_BIZ&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=170602&utm_campaign=bloombergdaily
Despite the unemployment rate falling to 4.3%, the lowest it’s been in over 15 years, the employment-to-population ratio also fell. Still, the data confirms that demand for experienced and skilled workers exists, while the supply is falling.11https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-02/u-s-jobs-weakness-may-be-temporary-but-loss-of-momentum-isn-t?cmpid=BBD060217_BIZ&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=170602&utm_campaign=bloombergdaily
Fed Will Discuss Raising Interest Rates
On June 14, the Fed FOMC will meet to determine if an interest rate increase is in order.12http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/01/dollar-hits-1-week-high-vs-yen-on-firm-us-data-non-farm-payrolls-next.html Despite the soft employment numbers and an inflation rate below the Fed’s target of 2%, traders still believe there is a nearly 88% chance that the Fed will raise rates in June.13http://www.reuters.com/article/usa-bonds-idUSL1N1IW0N6 However, the market consensus currently suggests only a roughly 50/50 chance for another rate increase before the end of the year.14http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/01/dollar-hits-1-week-high-vs-yen-on-firm-us-data-non-farm-payrolls-next.html
International News and Looking Ahead
Manufacturing in China has posted strong returns. Both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs reported gains above 50. The numbers suggest that China is on track to reach its targeted 6.5% growth for the year.15https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-31/china-manufacturing-gauge-exceeds-estimates-as-growth-holds-up This matters because China is the world’s second largest economy at $11 trillion GDP for 2017.16https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/03/worlds-biggest-economies-in-2017/
Other developments in the international arena could influence markets going forward. Reaction to President Trump’s decision to leave the Paris Climate Accord could adversely affect American products in the international markets. The landmark decision also runs the risk of hurting U.S. tech and alternative energy companies.17https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-01/trump-said-to-plan-withdrawal-from-landmark-paris-climate-accord
We will continue to follow developing international and national news as they move the markets. As always, if you have questions about how these events may affect your finances, please contact us. We are here to help you remain informed and in control of your financial future.
CEO, Managing Director
MGO | Wealth Advisors
Monday: Factory Orders, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
Tuesday: JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey)
Thursday: Jobless Claims
Notes: All index returns exclude reinvested dividends, and the 5-year and 10-year returns are annualized. Sources: Yahoo! Finance, S&P Dow Jones Indices and Treasury.gov. International performance is represented by the MSCI EAFE Index. Corporate bond performance is represented by the SPUSCIG. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
“Honesty is the best policy.”
– English proverb, 16th century
Savory Thai Turkey Lettuce Wraps
A fresh take on the classic wrap!
2 medium bell peppers, seeded and chopped
1 TBSP vegetable oil
3 garlic cloves, chopped
1 pound ground turkey
2 TBSP fish sauce
¼ cup fresh cilantro, chopped
¼ cup fresh mint leaves, chopped
3 TBSP lime juice
½ tsp sugar
Sriracha hot sauce, for serving
- Prepare a 12-inch skillet with 1 TBSP vegetable oil on medium-high heat.
- Add bell peppers, and sauté for 3 minutes.
- Add garlic, and cook for 30 seconds.
- Add ground turkey and fish sauce to peppers, and cook for 5 minutes, breaking into crumbles.
- Remove from heat, and add cilantro, mint leaves, lime juice, and sugar.
- Serve turkey and peppers mixture in lettuce cups.
- Garnish with Sriracha hot sauce (optional).
Recipe adapted from Good Housekeeping18http://www.goodhousekeeping.com/food-recipes/easy/a42833/thai-turkey-lettuce-wraps-recipe/
Understand How Offer in Compromise Works*
Sometimes taxpayers owe more money in taxes than they can afford to pay to the IRS. When this happens, you have the option to file an Offer in Compromise, which allows you to pay less than you owe. If you opt to pursue this route, here are some specific details about Offer in Compromise you should know:
- Affording the full debt amount
If you can afford to pay your full debt, you probably will not qualify for Offer in Compromise. Instead, you should pursue other options, such as setting up a payment plan with the IRS.
- Filing all required tax materials
In order to apply for an Offer in Compromise, you must have filed all necessary tax paperwork with the IRS.
- Making an initial payment toward your debt
The IRS may require you to pay an amount toward your owed taxes when you apply for Offer in Compromise. Any payments will apply toward your debt.
* This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax advisor.
Tip courtesy of IRS.gov19https://www.irs.gov/uac/irs-explains-how-offer-in-compromise-works
Exercise to Improve Your Strength—and Game
Golf may not be the most strenuous sport, but that doesn’t mean you should let your athleticism slip. As a golfer, you need endurance and a strong core when facing long, difficult courses. You also need power for maximizing your swing. Making sure to regularly exercise by working on your strength and conditioning will help your game improve. One effective exercise is The Box Step. Easily done at home, this exercise builds strength by engaging your quads, hamstrings, glutes, and hips.
The Box Step
- Set a box or stack platforms at 12 – 14 inches high.
- Step up on the box with your right foot, remaining in control of your body.
- Lift your left knee, pause, and then return your left leg to the starting position. Keep your movements fully controlled and with a soft landing.
- Rest, then repeat and rotate legs.
Tip courtesy of Golfweek20http://golfweek.com/2017/04/25/fitness-conditioning-key-to-success-on-the-course/
Know the Signs of Sleep Apnea
Sleep apnea is a serious health condition that causes interrupted breathing cycles when people are sleeping—and it can lead to a host of problems. Medical ailments such as high blood pressure, diabetes, and heart failure can all result from sleep apnea. To identify if you may be suffering from sleep apnea, check out these common risk factors and symptoms.
Common Risk Factors
Overall, men are more at risk for sleep apnea. Some additional risk factors include if you:
- Are overweight
- Have a large neck that is 17” or greater in men or 16” or greater in women
- Have a deviated septum
- Have large tonsils or a large tongue
You are possibly experiencing the effects of sleep apnea if you do the following:
- Snore loudly
- Wake up choking or gasping
- Stay tired or low on energy during the day
- Get restless sleep
- Experience forgetfulness and mood changes
Control Mosquitoes With These Natural Repellents
Controlling mosquitoes can quickly become like a summertime hobby. While many commercial products are available to help, they often contain the chemical DEET, which research links to a variety of health complications, including damaged brain cells. Fortunately, nature provides its own ingredients to keep mosquitoes at bay. Here are some common natural repellents you can use this summer:
- Catnip: Though your cat loves catnip, mosquitoes don’t. Some studies show that catnip is 10 times more effective at repelling mosquitoes than DEET.
- Garlic: Good news for garlic lovers! Mosquitoes hate it. The more garlic you consume, the more you’ll taste like it and thus deter those biting insects.
- Black Pepper: When used as an extract, black pepper has shown to ward off mosquitoes. You can also try using it as an essential oil.
Want to make your own repellent?
- Buy the following essential oils:
- Black Pepper
- Mix 6 drops of each into roughly 30 milliliters of an unscented moisturizer or natural oil.
- Cover your skin with the mixture before going outside. Remember to test for skin allergies on any ingredients before ongoing use.
Tip courtesy of Care2.com22http://www.care2.com/greenliving/8-natural-mosquito-repellents.html
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The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. The DJIA was invented by Charles Dow back in 1896.
The Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of stocks of technology companies and growth companies.
The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) that serves as a benchmark of the performance in major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indices from Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia.
The S&P U.S. Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index contains U.S.- and foreign-issued investment-grade corporate bonds denominated in U.S. dollars.
The SPUSCIG launched on April 09, 2013. All information for an index prior to its Launch Date is back-tested, based on the methodology that was in effect on the Launch Date. Back-tested performance, which is hypothetical and not actual performance, is subject to inherent limitations because it reflects application of an Index methodology and selection of index constituents in hindsight. No theoretical approach can take into account all of the factors in the markets in general and the impact of decisions that might have been made during the actual operation of an index. Actual returns may differ from, and be lower than, back-tested returns.
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are the leading measures of U.S. residential real estate prices, tracking changes in the value of residential real estate. The index is made up of measures of real estate prices in 20 cities and weighted to produce the index.
The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
You cannot invest directly in an index.
Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.
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