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Examining Earnings & Yields – April 23, 2018

Stocks posted moderate gains last week, as the S&P 500 added 0.52%, the Dow increased 0.42%, and the NASDAQ rose 0.56%.1http://performance.morningstar.com/Performance/index-c/performance-return.action?t=SPX&region=usa&culture=en-UShttp://performance.morningstar.com/Performance/index-c/performance-return.action?t=%21DJI&region=usa&culture=en-UShttp://performance.morningstar.com/Performance/index-c/performance-return.action?t=@CCO International stocks in the MSCI EAFE followed suit, gaining 0.41%.2 https://www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search

We received numerous new data updates last week, and most provided positive news for the economy. Retail sales, housing starts, and industrial production all beat expectations and increased in March.3https://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2018/4/16/retail-sales-rose-0.6percent-in-marchhttps://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2018/4/17/housing-starts-increased-1.9percent-in-marchhttps://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2018/4/17/industrial-production-rose-0.5percent-in-march

Amid last week’s primarily positive data updates, two key occurrences also affected markets:

  1. Corporate earnings
  2. Treasury yields

A Closer Look

  1. Earnings Season Continued

As of April 20, about 16% of S&P 500 companies shared their results for the 1st quarter, and over 80% of them beat earnings expectations.4https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/20/us-stock-futures-dow-data-earnings-tech-and-politics-on-the-agenda.html However, this solid performance has yet to impress investors. While most companies have exceeded earnings projections, their stocks haven’t reflected the growth.

On the other hand, companies that have beaten their sales projections—but missed on earnings-per-share—have dropped an average of 4.4% on their release days.5https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-is-freaking-out-up-about-the-bond-marketbut-should-it-be-2018-04-21

Takeaway: So far, corporate earnings are on the rise, but any companies that don’t beat estimates are experiencing considerable stock declines.6https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-19/asian-stocks-set-to-slip-bond-sell-off-deepens-markets-wrap

  1. Treasury Yields Rose

The yield on 10-year Treasuries hit 2.96%—the highest point since 2014. At the same time, the 2-year yield climbed to its highest since 2008.7https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/20/us-stock-futures-dow-data-earnings-tech-and-politics-on-the-agenda.html When interest rates rise, companies have higher borrowing costs, and bonds become a more enticing alternative to stocks.

Some investors are also concerned that the difference between the two Treasuries’ yields is too close. This occurrence, known as a flattening yield curve, can imply that investors are not confident in the long-term economic outlook.8https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-is-freaking-out-up-about-the-bond-marketbut-should-it-be-2018-04-21

Takeaway: Rising Treasury rates are worth paying attention to. If they are a symptom of a growing economy, the markets should be able to handle them. However, if questions about economic growth accompany the increases, investors may worry.

What Is Ahead

We are now in earnings season’s busiest week, when more than a third of S&P companies will release their reports.9https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/20/us-stock-futures-dow-data-earnings-tech-and-politics-on-the-agenda.html Additionally, on Friday, April 27, the initial estimate of the 1st quarter Gross Domestic Product will come out.10http://www.barrons.com/mdc/public/page/9_3063-economicCalendar.html

All this information will help deepen our understanding of where the economy stands—and what may lie ahead. If you have any questions about current data or future projections, we are available to talk.

Robert Roman
CEO, Managing Director
MGO | Wealth Advisors

ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

Tuesday: New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence
Thursday: Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims
Friday: GDP, Employment Cost Index, Consumer Sentiment


Notes: All index returns exclude reinvested dividends, and the 5-year and 10-year returns are annualized. Sources: Yahoo! Finance, S&P Dow Jones Indices and Treasury.gov. International performance is represented by the MSCI EAFE Index. Corporate bond performance is represented by the SPUSCIG. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
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“People who are crazy enough to
think they can change the world are the ones who do.”
-Rob Siltanen

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Pork Ragu Rigatoni

Serves 6

Ingredients:

  • 1 batch classic pasta dough
  • Kosher salt
  • Pepper
  • 2 tablespoons olive oil
  • 1 large clove garlic, finely chopped
  • 1½ pounds ground pork
  • 1 (6-ounce) can tomato paste
  • 1 cup dry white wine
  • ½ cup flat-leaf parsley, roughly chopped
  • Shaved ricotta salata, for serving

Directions:

  1. Use a rigatoni dial from a pasta press as directed to prepare pasta dough and tubular shapes.
  2. Boil water in a large pot. Add 1 tablespoon of salt.
  3. At the same time, heat oil and garlic on medium heat for 30 seconds in a large skillet.
  4. Add pork into the skillet. Season with ¼ teaspoon each of salt and pepper.
  5. Cook while breaking up pork into pieces until it is no longer pink, 5-6 minutes.
  6. Mix in tomato paste and stir, 2 minutes.
  7. Add wine. Simmer until the smell of wine disappears, 5 minutes.
  8. Add parsley.
  9. As pork continues to cook, cook pasta until it is firm, 4-6 minutes.
  10. Drain pasta. Toss together with ragu. Top with ricotta salata if desired.

Recipe adapted from Good Housekeeping11http://www.goodhousekeeping.com/food-recipes/a47964/pork-ragu-rigatoni-recipe/

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Where’s My Refund?

You filed your taxes. Now you’re waiting and wondering: When do I get my tax refund check?

The IRS provides taxpayers with the Where’s My Refund? app to help track the status of their refunds. Taxpayers will need their Social Security numbers, their filing status, and the exact dollar amount of their refunds.

Tax filers may start tracking the status of their returns within 24 hours after receiving notice from the IRS that their e-filed returns were received, or four weeks following the filing of their paper return.

The agency’s tracker shows progress of the return in 3 stages: The IRS receives the tax filing, approves it, and sends the return. It updates the app once every 24 hours. Frequent viewing of the app will not generate live status updates.

Taxpayers who file amended returns may track their refund statuses at: Where’s My Amended Return?

The IRS generally sends most refunds within 21 days.

* This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax advisor.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov12https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/check-status-of-a-tax-refund-in-minutes-using-wheres-my-refund

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How to Completely Overhaul Your Putt

The putter, the smallest of clubs, is only used on the green after you’ve been able to get the ball near the hole. But those seemingly short, simple shots with the simple putter are often the cause of the greatest golfing grief.

How can you overhaul your putting skills to make your time on the green more productive and satisfying?

Here are 4 tips for creating a deeper relationship with your putter and a more enduring experience on the short grass:

  1. Fire your putter. If you and your putter frequently have rather cantankerous exchanges, try tossing the old stick. Check out the alternatives: a center shaft, a mallet, or a heel-shafted putter. Go to a shop and get measured for a better fit. The union of you and your old putter is not till death do us part.
  2. Seek putter counseling. Maybe, just maybe, it’s not your putter that’s the problem. You think maybe it’s you? Go see a pro to analyze the mechanics of your putting. Are you doing something fundamentally wrong? Your shoulders provide the putter punch, not your hand or wrist action. Try using your sand wedge to reinforce your putting skills.
  3. Get a grip, dude. Did you ever think it could be your grip? Try holding your putter differently. How about flipping the locations of your right and left hands? Sometimes just changing your grip rewires your brain, and leads to more sinking balls.
  4. Turn off the left brain. We’re talking art, man. Many golfers fall into the trap of overanalyzing their putts, trying to incorporate principles of geometry, calculus, physics, meteorology, even astronomy. All that science sometimes makes for some very sad putts. Putt like a kid. Don’t give it any thought. Be outrageous. Carefree. You may even skip if you feel so inclined.

Tip adapted from Golf Digest13https://www.golfdigest.com/story/4-ways-to-reboot-your-putting

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Strengthen Weak or Injured Knees

Taking a knee is more than a political statement. Strong, functional knees make walking, running, and moving around easier. You can incorporate knee-strengthening exercises into your routine. If your doctor gives you the green light, here are 6 exercises to help put the hop and the skip back in your step:

  1. Warm Up: Ride a stationary bike, take a walk, or do some wall push-ups.
  2. Straight Leg Raises: Lie on your back on the floor. Bend one leg and raise the other leg to the height of the raised knee. Do 3 sets of 10-15 repetitions.
  3. Hamstring Curls: Lie on your stomach. Raise your heels slowly as close to your butt as possible. Do 3 sets of 10-15 repetitions.
  4. Prone Leg Raises: Lie on your stomach. Keep your legs straight. Lift one leg upward. Hold 3-5 seconds. Do 10-15 repetitions. Then do the other leg.
  5. Wall Squats: Keep your feet on the floor, shoulder length apart. Lean your back against the wall. Bend your knees slowly while keeping your back and pelvis against the wall. Hold for 5-10 seconds. Try to hold the seat position a few seconds longer each time. Repeat.
  6. Calf Raises: While standing, face the back of a chair or other sturdy support. Slowly raise your heels. You can also do this with your heels hanging off a step or a raised platform. Do 3 sets of 10-15 repetitions.

Exercise should never cause you pain. But sore muscles after a good workout is a good sign.

Material adapted from WebMD14https://www.webmd.com/pain-management/knee-pain/injury-knee-pain-16/slideshow-knee-exercises

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Skip Meat Once a Week

You don’t have to become a vegetarian to help save the planet. But going without meat once a week can have an impact.

Here are some meaty facts about what it takes to get that big, juicy burger to your plate:

  • It takes 1,850 gallons of water to produce a burger. Most of that water is used to grow grain to feed cattle.
  • Cattle ranchers frequently clear large swaths of tropical forests for pastures.
  • Ranching has led to 60% of the Amazon’s deforestation.
  • Two football fields of rainforest are destroyed to produce one head of cattle.

At least 100 billion gallons of water would be saved if every American refrained from meat for 1 day.

Tip adapted from Conservation International15https://www.conservation.org/pages/tips-to-live-green.aspx

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Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.

Diversification does not guarantee profit nor is it guaranteed to protect assets.

International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. The DJIA was invented by Charles Dow back in 1896.

The Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of stocks of technology companies and growth companies.

The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) that serves as a benchmark of the performance in major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indices from Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia.

The S&P U.S. Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index contains U.S.- and foreign-issued investment-grade corporate bonds denominated in U.S. dollars.

The SPUSCIG launched on April 09, 2013. All information for an index prior to its Launch Date is back-tested, based on the methodology that was in effect on the Launch Date. Back-tested performance, which is hypothetical and not actual performance, is subject to inherent limitations because it reflects application of an Index methodology and selection of index constituents in hindsight. No theoretical approach can take into account all of the factors in the markets in general and the impact of decisions that might have been made during the actual operation of an index. Actual returns may differ from, and be lower than, back-tested returns.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are the leading measures of U.S. residential real estate prices, tracking changes in the value of residential real estate. The index is made up of measures of real estate prices in 20 cities and weighted to produce the index.

The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

You cannot invest directly in an index.

Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.

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References   [ + ]

1. http://performance.morningstar.com/Performance/index-c/performance-return.action?t=SPX&region=usa&culture=en-UShttp://performance.morningstar.com/Performance/index-c/performance-return.action?t=%21DJI&region=usa&culture=en-UShttp://performance.morningstar.com/Performance/index-c/performance-return.action?t=@CCO
2. https://www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search
3. https://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2018/4/16/retail-sales-rose-0.6percent-in-marchhttps://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2018/4/17/housing-starts-increased-1.9percent-in-marchhttps://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2018/4/17/industrial-production-rose-0.5percent-in-march
4, 7, 9. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/20/us-stock-futures-dow-data-earnings-tech-and-politics-on-the-agenda.html
5, 8. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-is-freaking-out-up-about-the-bond-marketbut-should-it-be-2018-04-21
6. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-19/asian-stocks-set-to-slip-bond-sell-off-deepens-markets-wrap
10. http://www.barrons.com/mdc/public/page/9_3063-economicCalendar.html
11. http://www.goodhousekeeping.com/food-recipes/a47964/pork-ragu-rigatoni-recipe/
12. https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/check-status-of-a-tax-refund-in-minutes-using-wheres-my-refund
13. https://www.golfdigest.com/story/4-ways-to-reboot-your-putting
14. https://www.webmd.com/pain-management/knee-pain/injury-knee-pain-16/slideshow-knee-exercises
15. https://www.conservation.org/pages/tips-to-live-green.aspx